AI Ownership

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Page Type:AI Transition ModelStyle Guide →Structured factor/scenario/parameter page

Last edited:2026-01-05 (4 weeks ago)

ATM Factor

AI Ownership

Model RoleRoot Factor (AI System)

CharacterDistribution factor

Key DimensionsCountries, Companies, Shareholders

Related

ATM Parameters

• AI Control Concentration

ATM Scenarios

• Long-term Trajectory
• Long-term Lock-in

AI Ownership refers to who controls the most powerful AI systems and their outputs. Concentration among a few companies, countries, or individuals creates different risks than broad distribution. Ownership structure shapes incentives, accountability, and the distribution of AI benefits.

For interactive exploration of how AI Ownership relates to other factors, see the AI Transition Model Graph.

Key Dimensions

• Countries
• Companies
• Shareholders

Relationship to Scenarios

AI Ownership primarily affects Long-term Lock-in scenarios:

• Concentrated ownership shapes what values and power structures get entrenched
• Ownership patterns determine accountability and reversibility
• Distribution of AI benefits affects social stability

Also affects:

• AI Takeover: Concentrated ownership could help or hurt depending on the actor
• Human-Caused Catastrophe: Depends on who controls AI and their intentions

Key Debates

Debate	Question
Concentration effects	Is AI lab concentration good (easier to regulate) or bad (single points of failure)?
Profit vs safety	Can profit-motivated companies be trusted with AI safety?
Open source role	Does open source AI democratize capability or make dangerous systems accessible?
US-China dynamics	Is competition inevitable, or can cooperation emerge?

See Also

• Long-term Lock-in - Primary outcome affected
• Concentration of PowerRiskConcentration of PowerDocuments how AI development is concentrating in ~20 organizations due to $100M+ compute costs, with 5 firms controlling 80%+ of cloud infrastructure and projections reaching $1-10B per model by 20...Quality: 65/100 - Related risk
• AI Transition Model - Interactive graph showing relationships

Who Controls AI?

The three dimensions of AI control, their drivers, and key uncertainties.

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What links here

• Long-term Trajectoryai-transition-model-scenariodriver
• Long-term Lock-inai-transition-model-scenariodriven-by