Civilizational Competence

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Page Type:AI Transition ModelStyle Guide →Structured factor/scenario/parameter page

Last edited:2026-01-06 (4 weeks ago)

ATM Factor

Civilizational Competence

Model RoleRoot Factor (Societal)

Key ParametersGovernance, Epistemics, Societal Resilience, Adaptability

Primary OutcomesLong-term Trajectory, Transition Smoothness

Related

ATM Factors

• Transition Turbulence

ATM Parameters

• Regulatory Capacity
• Institutional Quality
• International Coordination
• Societal Resilience
• Epistemic Health
• Societal Trust

ATM Scenarios

• Long-term Trajectory

Civilizational Competence refers to humanity’s collective ability to navigate the AI transition successfully. This encompasses governance capacity, epistemic health, and societal adaptability.

Key Dimensions

No sub-items defined

Relationship to Scenarios

Civilizational Competence acts as a protective factor - higher competence decreases risk across multiple scenarios:

• AI Takeover: Better governance and oversight reduces probability
• Human-Caused Catastrophe: Better coordination prevents misuse escalation
• Long-term Lock-in: Shapes whether lock-in is beneficial or harmful

What Determines Civilizational Competence?

The three pillars of societal capacity, their drivers, and key uncertainties.

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What links here

• Transition Turbulenceai-transition-model-factormitigated-by
• Long-term Trajectoryai-transition-model-scenariodriver