Surprise Threat Exposure

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Vulnerability to novel, unforeseen threats enabled by AI—attack vectors we haven't anticipated. Represents the "unknown unknowns" of AI risk.

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What Affects Surprise Threat Exposure?

Causal factors affecting vulnerability to unanticipated AI-enabled threats.

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Node Types

Root Causes

Derived

Direct Factors

Target

Arrow Strength

Strong

Medium

Weak

Scenarios Influenced

Scenario	Effect	Strength
Human-Caused Catastrophe	↑ Increases	strong
AI Takeover	↑ Increases	weak
Long-term Lock-in	↑ Increases	weak

Related Content

Related Responses

• Resilience Building

Related Models

• Warning Signs Model
• Critical Uncertainties

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