Long-term Trajectory

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Long-term Trajectory measures the expected quality of the world after the existential catastrophe period resolves—whatever equilibrium or trajectory humanity ends up on. This is about the destination (or ongoing trajectory), distinct from whether we survive to reach it (Existential Catastrophe).

Even if we avoid catastrophe entirely, we could end up in a world where humans lack meaningful agency, AI benefits are concentrated among few, or authentic human preferences are manipulated. A "successful" transition to a dystopia is still a failure.

Why "Long-term Trajectory" not "Steady State"? We don't know whether a stable equilibrium will emerge. The future might involve ongoing change, multiple equilibria, or no clear "steady state" at all. "Long-term Trajectory" captures what we care about without assuming stability.

Sub-dimensions

Dimension	Description	Key Parameters
Human Agency Preserved	People retain meaningful autonomy and genuine choice	Human Agency, Preference Authenticity
Benefit Distribution	AI gains are shared equitably, not concentrated	AI Control Concentration, Economic Stability
Democratic Governance	Legitimate collective decision-making maintained	Institutional Quality, AI Control Concentration
Human Purpose/Meaning	People have fulfilling roles, not idle consumption	Human Expertise, Human Agency
Epistemic Autonomy	Humans can think independently and form genuine views	Epistemic Health, Reality Coherence
Diversity Preserved	Multiple viable ways of life exist	Preference Authenticity, Human Agency
Option Value	Future generations can make different choices	Reversibility, Lock-in avoidance

What Shapes Long-term Trajectory

Scenario Impact Scores

Ultimate Scenarios That Affect This

Ultimate Scenario	Effect on Long-term Trajectory
Long-term Lock-in	Primary — Determines whether good or bad values/power structures persist
AI Takeover	Secondary — Successful takeover means AI goals, not human values

The Root Factor Transition Turbulence also affects Long-term Trajectory through path dependence.

Key Parameters

Parameter	Relationship	Mechanism
Epistemics	High → Better	Clear thinking and shared reality enable good choices
Governance	High → Better	Effective institutions shape beneficial structures
Adaptability	High → Better	Preserved human capacity maintains agency and purpose

Why This Matters

Long-run conditions are what persist:

Lock-in effects: Once established, structures are hard to change
Compounding: Small differences in trajectory compound over time
Irreversibility: Some futures preclude alternatives permanently
Values matter: Technical success (avoiding catastrophe) isn't enough if we lose what we value

This outcome dimension asks: "Even if we avoid disaster, will the future be worth living in?"

Key Trade-offs

Trade-off	Description
Safety vs. Agency	Maximum safety might require ceding control to AI, reducing human agency
Efficiency vs. Purpose	Optimal AI allocation might leave humans without meaningful roles
Coordination vs. Diversity	Global coordination might homogenize cultures and ways of life
Speed vs. Deliberation	Faster development might lock in values before we understand implications
Stability vs. Option Value	Stable good outcomes might preclude even better alternatives

Scenarios

Scenario	Long-term Trajectory	Characteristics
Flourishing	Very High	Human agency preserved, benefits shared, meaning maintained
Comfortable Dystopia	Low	Material abundance but no agency, meaning, or authentic choice
Stagnation	Medium	Safety achieved but progress halted, options foreclosed
Fragmented	Variable	Some regions flourish, others don't; high inequality
Gradual Decline	Declining	No catastrophe but slow erosion of human relevance

Relationship to Existential Catastrophe

Existential Catastrophe Outcome	Long-term Trajectory
Catastrophe occurs	N/A (no long run)
Catastrophe avoided, bad lock-in	Low
Catastrophe avoided, good trajectory	High

Key insight: Existential Catastrophe and Long-term Trajectory are partially independent. You can:

Avoid catastrophe but end up in a bad future (dystopia)
Have high existential catastrophe but good conditional outcomes (high-variance)
Achieve both low risk and high value (best case)