Long-term Lock-in
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Last edited:2026-01-03 (4 weeks ago)
Critical Insights (1):
- NeglectedLock-in risks may dominate takeover risks: AI systems could entrench values/power structures for very long periods without any dramatic 'takeover' event.S:3.5I:4.5A:3.5
ATM Scenario
Long-term Lock-in
Model RoleDegradation Scenario
Primary DriversAI Ownership, Civilizational Competence
Sub-scenariosValues lock-in, Power lock-in, Epistemic lock-in
Related
ATM Factors
ATM Parameters
ATM Scenarios
Long-term Lock-in refers to scenarios where AI enables the permanent entrenchment of certain conditions - whether values, power structures, or epistemic environments. Unlike acute catastrophes, lock-in may unfold gradually and may not be immediately recognized as harmful.
Variants
Section titled “Variants”Key Root Factors
Section titled “Key Root Factors”Loading diagram...
Model Estimates
Section titled “Model Estimates”| Score | Factor | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | ↑ AI Ownership | Ownership patterns directly shape what gets locked in |
| 80 | ↑ AI Uses | Where AI is deployed determines what structures get entrenched |
| 75 | ↔ Civilizational Competence | High competence could enable good or bad lock-in |
| 70 | ↑ AI Capabilities | More capable AI makes lock-in scenarios more feasible |
| 60 | ↑ Misalignment Potential | Misaligned AI could lock in bad values or power structures |
| 40 | ↑ Transition Turbulence | Crisis can entrench emergency powers and structures |
| 35 | ↑ Misuse Potential | Misuse could trigger authoritarian responses |
Dual Nature
Section titled “Dual Nature”Unlike other scenarios, lock-in is not inherently negative:
| Pole | Description |
|---|---|
| Positive | Beneficial values and institutions stabilized, protected from degradation |
| Negative | Authoritarian control, harmful ideologies, or stagnation permanently entrenched |
Outcomes
Section titled “Outcomes”Long-term Lock-in primarily affects:
- Long-term Trajectory: The quality and character of the post-transition future
- May contribute to Existential Catastrophe if lock-in prevents course correction