Epistemic Lock-in

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See also:80,000 HoursLessWrongEA Forum

Epistemic lock-in affects humanity's collective capacity to discover truth, share knowledge, and coordinate around shared understanding of reality. AI could enable an epistemic renaissance or precipitate epistemic collapse through pervasive deepfakes, algorithmic filter bubbles, and erosion of trust.

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What Drives Epistemic Lock-in?

Causal factors affecting epistemic collapse vs. renaissance pathways. The collapse pathway is already underway: deepfake incidents surged 3,000%, AI-generated content now comprises 30-40% of web text, and trust in news has fallen to 40% globally.

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Node Types

Root Causes

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Direct Factors

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Influenced By

Factor	Effect	Strength
AI Capabilities	↑ Increases	medium
Misalignment Potential	↑ Increases	medium
Misuse Potential	↑ Increases	weak
Transition Turbulence	↑ Increases	weak
Civilizational Competence	—	strong
AI Ownership	↑ Increases	strong
AI Uses	↑ Increases	strong

Outcomes Affected

• Long-term Trajectory

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