Political Power Lock-in

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Critical Insights (1):

• NeglectedPower concentration from AI may matter more than direct AI risk: transformative AI controlled by few could reshape governance without 'takeover'.S:3.0I:4.3A:3.2

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See also:80,000 Hours

Political power lock-in describes scenarios where AI-enabled surveillance and control mechanisms make authoritarian or oligarchic governance structures effectively permanent, foreclosing the possibility of regime change or political reform through any available means.

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What Drives Political Power Lock-in?

Causal factors enabling irreversible authoritarian control via AI surveillance. 72% of humanity (5.7B people) lives under autocracy; AI addresses all traditional overthrow mechanisms simultaneously.

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Node Types

Root Causes

Derived

Direct Factors

Target

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Influenced By

Factor	Effect	Strength
AI Capabilities	↑ Increases	medium
Misalignment Potential	↑ Increases	medium
Misuse Potential	↑ Increases	weak
Transition Turbulence	↑ Increases	weak
Civilizational Competence	—	strong
AI Ownership	↑ Increases	strong
AI Uses	↑ Increases	strong

Outcomes Affected

• Long-term Trajectory

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