Skip to content

Cause-Effect Diagrams

Interactive diagrams showing causal relationships in the AI Transition Model. Click any diagram below to view it in detail.

View Master Graph →
View Tables →
What Drives Misalignment Potential?
misalignment-potential13 nodes
What Drives Misuse Potential?
misuse-potential14 nodes
What Drives AI Capabilities?
ai-capabilities13 nodes
How AI Gets Deployed
ai-uses15 nodes
Who Controls AI?
ai-ownership14 nodes
What Determines Civilizational Competence?
civilizational-competence14 nodes
What Causes Transition Turbulence?
transition-turbulence14 nodes
What Drives International AI Coordination?
international-coordination10 nodes
What Affects Societal Trust?
societal-trust10 nodes
What Affects Epistemic Health?
epistemic-health10 nodes
What Affects Information Authenticity?
information-authenticity6 nodes
What Drives AI Control Concentration?
ai-control-concentration6 nodes
What Affects Human Agency?
human-agency6 nodes
What Affects Economic Stability?
economic-stability6 nodes
What Affects Human Expertise?
human-expertise6 nodes
What Affects Human Oversight Quality?
human-oversight-quality10 nodes
What Affects Alignment Robustness?
alignment-robustness10 nodes
What Drives the Safety-Capability Gap?
safety-capability-gap10 nodes
What Affects Interpretability Coverage?
interpretability-coverage10 nodes
What Affects Regulatory Capacity?
regulatory-capacity9 nodes
What Affects Institutional Quality?
institutional-quality9 nodes
What Affects Reality Coherence?
reality-coherence9 nodes
What Affects Preference Authenticity?
preference-authenticity9 nodes
What Drives Racing Intensity?
racing-intensity9 nodes
What Affects Safety Culture Strength?
safety-culture-strength10 nodes
What Affects Coordination Capacity?
coordination-capacity10 nodes
What Affects Biological Threat Exposure?
biological-threat-exposure10 nodes
What Affects Cyber Threat Exposure?
cyber-threat-exposure10 nodes
What Affects Societal Resilience?
societal-resilience10 nodes
Pathways to Existential Catastrophe
existential-catastrophe9 nodes
What Shapes Long-term Trajectory?
long-term-trajectory10 nodes
What Drives Effective AI Compute?
tmc-compute13 nodes
What Drives Algorithmic Progress?
tmc-algorithms13 nodes
What Drives AI Adoption?
tmc-adoption10 nodes
What Drives Company AI Concentration?
tmc-companies10 nodes
What Drives Country AI Distribution?
tmc-countries10 nodes
How AI Affects Shareholder Wealth?
tmc-shareholders11 nodes
How Gradual AI Takeover Happens
tmc-gradual10 nodes
How Rapid AI Takeover Happens
tmc-rapid13 nodes
What Enables Recursive AI Improvement?
tmc-recursive-ai10 nodes
What Drives AI Industry Adoption?
tmc-industries10 nodes
What Drives Government AI Adoption?
tmc-governments10 nodes
How AI Affects Coordination?
tmc-coordination10 nodes
What Affects Societal Adaptability?
tmc-civcomp-adaptability10 nodes
What Affects Civilizational Epistemics?
tmc-civ-epistemics10 nodes
What Affects Governance Effectiveness?
tmc-civ-governance10 nodes
How State-Caused AI Catastrophe Happens
tmc-state-actor11 nodes
How Rogue Actor AI Catastrophe Happens
tmc-rogue-actor11 nodes
What Drives Economic Power Lock-in?
tmc-economic-power13 nodes
What Drives Political Power Lock-in?
tmc-political-power15 nodes
How Values Lock-in Happens
tmc-values13 nodes
What Drives Epistemic Lock-in?
tmc-epistemic-lockin16 nodes
How Suffering Lock-in Happens
tmc-suffering-lock-in14 nodes
What Drives AI Safety Adequacy?
tmc-technical-ai-safety14 nodes
How AI Governance Affects Misalignment Risk?
tmc-ai-governance9 nodes
What Determines Lab Safety Practices?
tmc-lab-safety10 nodes
What Affects Robot Threat Exposure?
tmc-robot-threat9 nodes
What Affects Surprise Threat Exposure?
tmc-surprise-threat9 nodes