Key Debates
Overview
Section titled “Overview”This section presents structured analyses of major debates in AI safety. For each debate, we present the strongest arguments on multiple sides, identify key cruxes, and track how expert opinion has evolved.
Major Debates
Section titled “Major Debates”Foundational Questions
Section titled “Foundational Questions”- Is AI Existential Risk Real? - The core question of whether AI poses genuine existential risk
- AGI Timeline Debate - When might transformative AI arrive?
- Scaling Debate - Will scaling alone produce AGI?
Alignment Approach
Section titled “Alignment Approach”- Why Alignment Might Be Hard - Arguments for difficulty
- Why Alignment Might Be Easy - Arguments for tractability
- Interpretability Sufficient? - Can we rely on understanding models?
Strategy & Policy
Section titled “Strategy & Policy”- Pause Debate - Should AI development be paused?
- Open vs Closed - Open-source AI tradeoffs
- Regulation Debate - Government intervention approaches
Risk Assessment
Section titled “Risk Assessment”- The Case FOR AI Existential Risk - Strongest arguments for concern
- The Case AGAINST AI Existential Risk - Strongest counterarguments
How Debates Are Structured
Section titled “How Debates Are Structured”Each debate page includes:
- Steelmanned positions - Best versions of each argument
- Key cruxes - What would change minds
- Evidence and citations - Supporting data for each side
- Expert distribution - Where informed people fall
- Implications - How resolution would affect priorities