Is AI Existential Risk Real?

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LLM Summary:Presents two core cruxes in the AI x-risk debate: whether advanced AI would develop dangerous goals (instrumental convergence vs. trainable safety) and whether we'll get warning signs (gradual failures vs. deception/fast takeoff). No quantitative analysis, primary sources, or novel framing provided.

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See also:LessWrongEA Forum

Key Crux

AI Existential Risk Debate

QuestionDoes AI pose genuine existential risk?

StakesDetermines priority of AI safety work

Expert ConsensusSignificant disagreement

This is the foundational question in AI safety. Everything else depends on whether you believe AI could actually pose existential risk.

Key Cruxes

What would change your mind on this debate?

Key Questions (2)

• If we built human-level AI, would it naturally develop dangerous goals?
• Will we get warning signs before catastrophe?