Manifest

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LLM Summary:Manifest is a 2024 forecasting conference that generated significant controversy within EA/rationalist communities due to speaker selection including individuals associated with race science, highlighting tensions between intellectual openness and community standards. While not directly AI safety focused, it illustrates important debates about maintaining ethical boundaries while preserving epistemic diversity in adjacent communities.

Quick Assessment

Aspect	Assessment
Type	Annual conference
Focus	Forecasting, prediction markets, rationality
First Held	2024
Location	Berkeley, California
Community Ties	LessWrong, Effective Altruism, prediction markets
Controversy Level	High - significant debate over speaker selection and ideological boundaries
Organizers	Manifold Markets team

Overview

Manifest is an annual conference focused on forecasting, prediction markets, and rationalist community networking. First held June 7-9, 2024 in Berkeley, California, the event brought together participants from the LessWrong and Effective Altruism communities, along with Substack writers and prediction market enthusiasts.¹

The conference generated significant controversy within the rationalist and EA communities due to its speaker selection policies and associations with controversial topics. While organizers promoted it as a low-barrier networking event for “interesting” people in the forecasting space, critics raised concerns about platforming speakers associated with race science and eugenics, leading to heated debates about community boundaries and standards.²³

Despite the controversies, many attendees reported positive experiences with the conference’s debate formats and networking opportunities. The event highlighted ongoing tensions within rationalist-adjacent communities about openness, intellectual diversity, and where to draw ethical lines.

History and Format

Manifest 2024 was held at venues associated with LessOnline/Summer Camp, including The Curve in Berkeley.¹ The conference was promoted on the EA Forum as a rationalist-adjacent event offering opportunities to network with prominent figures from prediction markets, forecasting, and online rationalist communities.⁴

The organizers adopted what they described as a “low-bar invitation” policy - essentially, “if you’re interesting, you’re good.”² This approach was intended to foster diverse viewpoints and facilitate the kind of open intellectual exchange valued in forecasting and rationalist circles. Attendees engaged in prediction market activities, attended talks and panels, and participated in debate formats designed to reduce emotional bias compared to standard argumentation.⁵

The conference had financial connections to the broader EA ecosystem through Manifold Markets, which received funding from the FTX Future Fund before its collapse.² These ties, along with the event’s promotion on EA Forum and attendance by prominent EA figures, contributed to debates about whether the EA community should distance itself from the conference.

Community Reception and Controversy

The conference sparked intense debate across EA Forum and LessWrong, centered on speaker selection and ideological boundaries. According to critics, at least eight “special guests” were associated with eugenics, “human biodiversity” (HBD), or race science perspectives.³ A Guardian article covering these associations was characterized by defenders as an “error-riddled hit piece” but amplified concerns among some community members.²

Defending Perspectives

Supporters of Manifest emphasized several points:

Many attendees reported genuinely positive experiences focused on forecasting and rationality topics, independent of the controversies¹²
The low-barrier invitation policy reflects a commitment to intellectual diversity and open discourse valued in forecasting communities²
Manifold Markets operates independently from EA governance structures, so EA promotion and FTX-linked funding don’t imply organizational endorsement¹²
The debate formats used at Manifest and LessOnline were praised for facilitating more rational discussion with less emotional bias⁵
Critics saw the Guardian coverage as unfair “cancel culture” targeting rationalist communities²

Critical Perspectives

Critics within the EA and rationalist communities raised several concerns:

EA should “unequivocally condemn” and distance itself from events that platform race science perspectives, with some calling for bans on related Forum discussions to avoid repelling potential contributors³
The boundaries between Manifest, LessWrong, and EA were too blurred given shared promotion, attendees, and funding sources like the $5M in FTX-linked funds¹²
Anti-trans sentiments were reportedly present, concerning given higher trans representation in EA communities³
These associations risk EA’s professional reputation and ability to attract diverse talent³
The “low filter” approach to speaker selection represents inadequate quality control for events promoted to EA audiences³

The controversy highlighted fundamental disagreements about whether rationalist communities should prioritize maximal openness to controversial ideas or establish clearer boundaries around speakers and topics associated with racism or pseudoscience.

Relationship to AI Safety Community

While not primarily focused on AI safety, Manifest’s connections to the rationalist and EA communities mean it intersects with AI safety discourse. Many individuals working on AI alignment and existential risk participate in these broader communities and may attend events like Manifest.

The controversies around the conference reflect broader tensions within AI safety communities about:

How to balance intellectual openness with maintaining ethical standards
Where to draw lines around controversial speakers and ideas
How associations and platforming decisions affect the field’s reputation and ability to attract diverse talent
The relationship between rationalist epistemology and controversial empirical claims

These debates are particularly salient for AI safety given the field’s origins in rationalist communities like LessWrong and organizations like MIRI, and ongoing questions about how to build a diverse, inclusive field while maintaining intellectual rigor.

Funding and Organizational Structure

Manifold Markets, the organizing entity behind the conference, received funding from the FTX Future Fund before its collapse.² The broader ecosystem of rationalist venues and organizations faced FTX-related challenges, including potential clawbacks. According to forum discussions, Lightcone Infrastructure (which operates related venues) faced FTX clawback concerns involving approximately $5M in unspent or allocated funds, though they were offered a settlement of approximately $700k out of roughly $900k in reserves.²

These financial entanglements added complexity to debates about EA’s relationship with Manifest, as FTX Future Fund was explicitly “EA-coded” in its mission and grantmaking.

Key Uncertainties

What specific policies or guidelines, if any, will Manifest adopt for future speaker selection given the 2024 controversies?
Will major EA organizations or LessWrong leadership issue clearer positions on the appropriate relationship between their communities and future Manifest conferences?
How will the conference’s reputation and attendance evolve given the 2024 debates?
What role should forecasting and prediction market communities play in broader rationalist and EA ecosystems?
Can events successfully balance openness to diverse perspectives with community standards around controversial topics?