Sentinel
- QualityRated 39 but structure suggests 60 (underrated by 21 points)
Quick Assessment
Section titled “Quick Assessment”| Aspect | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Type | Foresight and emergency response organization |
| Founded | 2024 |
| Focus | Anticipating and reacting to large-scale catastrophes |
| Output | Weekly newsletters, Sentinel Minutes podcast |
| Team | Elite forecasters including members from SamotsvetySamotsvetyElite forecasting group Samotsvety dominated INFER competitions 2020-2022 with relative Brier scores twice as good as competitors, providing influential probabilistic forecasts including 28% TAI by...Quality: 61/100, Good JudgmentGood JudgmentGood Judgment Inc. is a commercial forecasting organization that emerged from successful IARPA research, demonstrating that trained 'superforecasters' can outperform intelligence analysts and predi...Quality: 50/100, Swift CentreSwift CentreSwift Centre is a UK forecasting organization that provides conditional forecasting services to various clients including some AI companies, but is not primarily focused on AI safety. While they de...Quality: 50/100 |
| Website | sentinel-team.org |
Key Links
Section titled “Key Links”| Source | Link |
|---|---|
| Official Website | sentinelswiki.com |
| Wikipedia | en.wikipedia.org |
Overview
Section titled “Overview”Sentinel is a foresight and emergency response team focused on anticipating and reacting to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature.1 Founded by Nuño SempereNuno SempereNuño Sempere is a Spanish superforecaster who co-founded the highly successful Samotsvety forecasting group and now runs Sentinel for global catastrophe early warning, while being known for skeptic...Quality: 50/100, the organization processes millions of news items weekly to identify potential global risks, using language models for initial prioritization before engaging elite forecasters to assess threats and assign probabilities.
The organization emerged from Sempere’s work with Samotsvety ForecastingSamotsvetyElite forecasting group Samotsvety dominated INFER competitions 2020-2022 with relative Brier scores twice as good as competitors, providing influential probabilistic forecasts including 28% TAI by...Quality: 61/100, building on that group’s expertise in probabilistic risk assessment. Sentinel aims to provide an early warning system for catastrophic risks by combining automated news monitoring with human forecaster judgment.
Core Activities
Section titled “Core Activities”Risk Detection Pipeline
Section titled “Risk Detection Pipeline”Sentinel operates a multi-stage process for identifying global risks:
- Automated Collection: Processing millions of news items weekly from global sources
- AI Prioritization: Using language models to filter and prioritize potentially significant events
- Forecaster Assessment: Elite forecasters evaluate flagged items and assign probability estimates
- Publication: Weekly summaries published via newsletter and podcast
Weekly Briefs
Section titled “Weekly Briefs”The organization publishes regular assessments covering topics including:
- AI risks: Developments in artificial intelligence that may pose catastrophic risks
- Geopolitical threats: International conflicts, nuclear risks, and escalation scenarios
- Emerging catastrophes: Novel threats that lack historical precedent
- Probability updates: Changes in forecasted likelihoods for tracked risks
Each brief includes a “risk status indicator” providing an at-a-glance assessment of near-term catastrophic risk levels.
The Sentinel team combines expertise from leading forecasting organizations:
- Nuño Sempere - Head of Foresight; co-founder of Samotsvety ForecastingSamotsvetyElite forecasting group Samotsvety dominated INFER competitions 2020-2022 with relative Brier scores twice as good as competitors, providing influential probabilistic forecasts including 28% TAI by...Quality: 61/100; fellow in 2025 AI for Human Reasoning FellowshipAi For Human Reasoning FellowshipFLF's inaugural 12-week fellowship (July-October 2025) combined research fellowship with startup incubator format. 30 fellows received $25-50K stipends to build AI tools for human reasoning. Produc...Quality: 55/100; produces monthly forecasting newsletters
- Vidur KapurVidur KapurVidur Kapur is a superforecaster and AI policy researcher involved in multiple forecasting organizations and the Sentinel early warning system, contributing to AI risk assessment and EA Forum discu...Quality: 38/100 - Superforecaster at Good Judgment; also forecasts for Swift Centre, Samotsvety, and RAND
- Tolga Bilge - AI Policy Researcher at ControlAIControlaiControlAI is a UK-based advocacy organization that has achieved notable policy engagement success (briefing 150+ lawmakers, securing support from 100+ UK parliamentarians) while promoting direct in...Quality: 63/100
- Rai Sur - Podcast narrator for Sentinel Minutes
- belikewater - Forecaster
Media and Distribution
Section titled “Media and Distribution”Newsletter
Section titled “Newsletter”Sentinel publishes via Substack, offering both free and paid subscription tiers. Paid members gain access to community Slack channels and provide direct support for the organization’s detection work.1
Sentinel Minutes Podcast
Section titled “Sentinel Minutes Podcast”The organization produces a podcast summarizing key findings and risk assessments, available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and RSS feeds. The podcast provides an accessible audio format for weekly risk updates.
Relationship to AI Safety
Section titled “Relationship to AI Safety”Sentinel’s work intersects with AI safety in several ways:
- AI risk tracking: Regular monitoring of AI developments that could pose catastrophic risks
- Methodology: Uses language models as part of their detection pipeline, providing a case study in AI-assisted risk assessment
- Community overlap: Team members active in effective altruism and rationalist communities where AI safety is a central concern
The organization represents an application of forecasting methods developed in the EA/rationalist ecosystem to the practical problem of catastrophic risk early warning.
Key Uncertainties
Section titled “Key Uncertainties”- How effective is the AI-assisted detection pipeline at catching novel, unprecedented risks?
- What is the optimal balance between false positives (unnecessary alarm) and false negatives (missed warnings)?
- How do Sentinel’s risk assessments compare to those from traditional intelligence or security organizations?
- Can the organization scale its impact while maintaining forecaster quality?
- What evidence would demonstrate the value of speculative risk forecasting?