Situational Awareness LP

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LLM Summary:Situational Awareness LP is a hedge fund founded by Leopold Aschenbrenner in 2024 that manages ~$2B in AI-focused public equities (semiconductors, energy infrastructure, data centers), delivering 47% gains in H1 2025. The fund's concentrated portfolio (100% in top 10 positions) includes major holdings in Broadcom (15.47%), Intel calls (21.35%), Vistra (11.63%), and Core Scientific (6.43%).

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QualityRated 59 but structure suggests 87 (underrated by 28 points)
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Quick Assessment

Aspect	Details
Type	AI-focused equity investment firm
Founded	2024
Headquarters	San Francisco, California
AUM	Approximately $2 billion (Q2 2025)
Leadership	Leopold Aschenbrenner (Managing Partner, CIO)
Key Holdings	Broadcom, Intel, Vistra, Core Scientific
2025 H1 Performance	47% gains after fees
Investment Focus	Public equities benefiting from AI advancement

Key Links

Source	Link
Official Website	scottaaronson.blog
Wikipedia	en.wikipedia.org
EA Forum	forum.effectivealtruism.org

Overview

Situational Awareness LP (SALP) is a San Francisco-based hedge fund founded in 2024 by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher who worked on the Superalignment team.¹² The fund manages approximately $4.14 billion in portfolio value across 28 holdings, primarily targeting public equities in AI-impacted sectors including semiconductors, energy infrastructure, and computing.³⁴

The fund’s investment thesis centers on the belief that artificial intelligence will be the dominant driver of global market returns over the next decade. Rather than investing in private AI startups, SALP focuses exclusively on publicly traded companies expected to benefit from AI advancement—taking long positions in semiconductors, infrastructure, and power companies while shorting industries vulnerable to AI disruption.⁵⁶ This strategy delivered 47% gains after fees in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing broader market indices.⁶

Named after Aschenbrenner’s 165-page essay “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,” which forecasts AGI emergence by 2025-2026, the fund reflects his broader thesis about rapid AI capability advancement and its economic implications.²⁷ The fund attracted prominent Silicon Valley investors including Stripe founders Patrick and John Collison, former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman, and entrepreneur Daniel Gross as anchor investors.²⁸

History

Founding and Origins

Leopold Aschenbrenner founded Situational Awareness LP in 2024 following his departure from OpenAI, where he worked on the Superalignment team until being fired in April 2024 over an alleged information leak—a characterization he disputes.²⁹ Born in Germany in 2001 or 2002, Aschenbrenner graduated as valedictorian from Columbia University in 2021 at age 19 with majors in economics and mathematics-statistics, and co-founded Columbia’s effective altruism chapter.²

Before joining OpenAI, Aschenbrenner researched long-run economic growth at Oxford’s Global Priorities Institute and worked with the FTX Future Fund alongside figures like William MacAskill.²⁹ His academic background combined with experience in AI safety research informed the analytical framework he would later apply to investment strategy.

The fund launched concurrently with Aschenbrenner’s publication of “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead” in June 2024, a detailed essay predicting AGI emergence by 2025-2026 and trillion-dollar AI compute clusters by decade’s end.⁷¹⁰ This essay provided the intellectual foundation for the fund’s investment thesis and attracted attention from prominent technology investors.

Early Growth and Performance

Despite Aschenbrenner’s youth (age 23 at founding) and lack of prior professional investing experience, the fund raised over $1.5 billion quickly from high-profile backers.⁶¹¹ The investor base expanded to include West Coast technology founders, family offices, institutional investors, and endowments, with Aschenbrenner investing “almost all of his net worth” in the fund.⁶⁹

The fund’s first half of 2025 demonstrated strong performance with 47% gains after fees, validating the AI-focused investment strategy.⁶¹¹ By the second quarter of 2025, assets under management reached approximately $2 billion according to SEC 13F filings, with the portfolio concentrated in 28 positions.³¹¹

Timeline of Key Events

2021: Aschenbrenner graduates from Columbia University as valedictorian
Pre-2024: Works at Oxford Global Priorities Institute, FTX Future Fund, and OpenAI Superalignment team²⁹
April 2024: Departs from OpenAI following disputed circumstances²
June 2024: Publishes “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead” essay; launches Situational Awareness LP with anchor investments²⁷
September 2024: Aschenbrenner speaks at Stanford Digital Economy Lab fireside chat on AGI themes¹²
First Half 2025: Fund delivers 47% returns after fees; assets swell to over $1.5 billion⁶¹¹
Q2 2025: SEC filing discloses portfolio value of approximately $2 billion across 28 holdings³¹¹
July-August 2025: Builds 5.8% stake (17.7 million shares) in Core Scientific, viewing it as undervalued AI infrastructure¹¹

Investment Strategy

Core Thesis

The fund’s investment approach stems from Aschenbrenner’s belief that AI—particularly the anticipated emergence of artificial general intelligence—will dominate global equity returns over the coming decade.¹ This thesis combines macro-level analysis of AI industry trends, deep technological understanding of AI systems, and fundamental company evaluation to identify investment opportunities.¹

Rather than pursuing private equity investments in AI startups, SALP focuses on identifying publicly traded companies positioned to benefit from AI advancement. The strategy employs both long and short positions: taking long positions in semiconductors, infrastructure, and power companies expected to benefit from AI growth, while offsetting these with shorts on industries vulnerable to AI disruption.⁵⁶¹³

Portfolio Construction

According to the most recent SEC 13F filings, the fund maintains a concentrated portfolio with 100% of holdings in the top 10 positions.⁴ Major holdings include:

Holding	Portfolio %	Notes
SMH VanEck Semiconductor (PUT)	26.85%	Top buy by percentage change⁴
Intel Corporation (CALL)	21.35%	Major semiconductor position⁴
Broadcom Inc.	15.47%	Top buy⁴
Vistra Corp	11.63%	Energy sector exposure⁴
Core Scientific Inc.	6.43%	Data centers and AI infrastructure³⁴

Additional significant holdings include CoreWeave Inc., IREN Limited, and Galaxy Digital Inc.³ The portfolio emphasizes sectors classified under transportation equipment, electric/gas/sanitary services, and electronic/electrical equipment.³

Recent Activity and Adjustments

In the second quarter of 2025, the fund’s market value grew substantially from $1.01 billion to $2.12 billion.⁴ Major buys during this period included SMH (up 26.85% of portfolio) and Vistra (up 5.49%), while the fund reduced positions in Onto Innovation (down 7.08%) and Modine Manufacturing (down 5.47%).⁴ The portfolio exhibited a turnover rate of 38.46% during this period.⁴

Between July and August 2025, Aschenbrenner built a notable 5.8% stake in Core Scientific, acquiring 17.7 million shares.¹¹ He characterized this as an undervalued AI infrastructure play, particularly given the company’s pivot following its emergence from bankruptcy.⁶¹¹

Performance and Assets Under Management

The fund achieved substantial returns in its first year of operation. In the first half of 2025, SALP delivered 47% gains after fees, significantly outpacing both the S&P 500 and technology-heavy indices.⁶¹¹ This performance occurred during a period when AI-related stocks experienced strong appreciation driven by enthusiasm about AI capabilities and infrastructure buildout.

Assets under management grew rapidly from the fund’s 2024 launch. By mid-2025, the fund managed over $1.5 billion in assets, swelling to approximately $2 billion by the second quarter according to SEC filings.³⁶¹¹ This growth reflected both strong investment returns and additional capital inflows from new and existing investors.

The fund’s investor base includes prominent Silicon Valley technology founders, family offices, institutional investors, and university endowments.⁶⁹ Anchor investors Patrick Collison, John Collison, Nat Friedman, and Daniel Gross provided early backing that helped establish the fund’s credibility despite Aschenbrenner’s limited investing experience.²⁸

Relationship to “Situational Awareness” Essay

The fund shares its name and intellectual foundation with Aschenbrenner’s essay “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,” published in June 2024.⁷¹⁰ This 165-page document presents a detailed forecast of AI development, predicting AGI emergence by 2025-2026 and superintelligence by the end of the decade.⁷¹⁴

The essay’s core arguments about rapid AI capability scaling through three drivers—raw compute growth, algorithmic efficiency improvements, and “unhobbling” gains that unlock latent capabilities—directly inform the fund’s investment thesis.¹⁴¹⁵ Aschenbrenner’s prediction of trillion-dollar AI compute clusters and massive infrastructure buildout by decade’s end underlies the fund’s emphasis on semiconductor, energy, and data center investments.⁷¹⁰

Within AI safety communities, the essay sparked extensive debate about AI timelines, alignment challenges, and preparedness for advanced AI systems.¹⁴¹⁶ While some praised its detailed forecasts and strategic clarity, critics challenged its optimism about alignment solvability and raised concerns about potentially accelerating AI capabilities development.¹⁶¹⁷ The fund operates independently of these debates, focusing on capitalizing financially on AI advancement regardless of the ultimate resolution of safety challenges.

Management and Operations

Leopold Aschenbrenner serves as Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer, leading a small team of approximately four employees.²¹² The firm operates as a Delaware limited partnership and is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC (CRD #333011).¹⁸

Aschenbrenner’s personal investment in the fund is substantial—a spokesperson stated he has invested “almost all of his net worth” in SALP.⁶⁹ This alignment of interests between fund manager and investors is emphasized in the fund’s positioning. Aschenbrenner is also personally connected to the AI safety community through his engagement to Avital Balwit, chief of staff at Anthropic and former FTX Future Fund colleague.⁹

The fund files regular SEC disclosures including 13F quarterly reports and 13D/G filings for significant equity positions.³ Recent 13D/G activity includes new positions in companies like CoreWeave and various AI-related ETFs.³

Reception and Positioning

Within the investment community, SALP has been characterized as part of the “technological arms race” in AI, with its returns generating significant market confidence.⁵⁶ The fund positions itself as a “brain trust on AI,” leveraging Aschenbrenner’s technical background and analytical approach to AI development trends.⁶¹¹

The fund’s rapid asset growth and strong early returns attracted attention given Aschenbrenner’s age and limited traditional investing credentials. At 23 years old with no prior professional investment management experience, his ability to raise over $1.5 billion and deliver 47% first-half returns represented an unusual profile for a hedge fund manager.⁶¹¹

Media coverage has generally focused on the fund’s performance and Aschenbrenner’s unconventional background rather than on detailed investment strategy critique. The fund’s positioning at the intersection of AI forecasting and public equity investing has drawn interest from both technology-focused investors and those seeking exposure to AI-driven market trends.⁵⁶

Criticisms and Concerns

Limited Track Record and Experience

The fund’s founding circumstances have drawn scrutiny given Aschenbrenner’s youth and lack of professional investing experience. At age 23 with no prior fund management background, he raised over $1.5 billion largely on the strength of his AI analysis rather than demonstrated investment expertise.¹¹ While the fund’s early performance has been strong, critics note that a single year of returns provides limited evidence of sustainable investment skill, particularly given the broad rally in AI-related stocks during 2024-2025.

Departure from OpenAI

Aschenbrenner’s April 2024 departure from OpenAI involved disputed circumstances around an alleged information leak.²⁹ Former colleagues described him as “politically clumsy,” “arrogant,” and “abrasive,” characterizing him as unafraid to challenge superiors.²⁹ While these descriptions come from anonymous sources and Aschenbrenner disputes the leak allegation, the circumstances surrounding his exit remain ambiguous and potentially relevant to assessing his judgment and operational approach.

Relationship to AI Safety Debates

The fund’s intellectual foundation in Aschenbrenner’s “Situational Awareness” essay connects it to contentious debates within the AI safety community. His essay has been criticized for potentially downplaying alignment risks while prioritizing U.S.-China AGI competition and national security concerns.¹⁷ Some critics argue the essay’s framing could accelerate AI capabilities development without adequate attention to safety challenges.¹⁶¹⁷

However, these criticisms primarily target the essay’s policy recommendations rather than the fund’s investment strategy. SALP’s focus on capitalizing financially on AI advancement operates independently of debates about whether such advancement should be accelerated, slowed, or subject to particular safety constraints.

Concentration Risk

The fund’s highly concentrated portfolio—with 100% of holdings in the top 10 positions—creates significant risk exposure.⁴ While this concentration contributed to strong returns during the AI stock rally of 2024-2025, it also means the fund would be vulnerable to sector-specific downturns or disappointments in AI commercialization timelines. The portfolio’s heavy weighting toward semiconductors, data centers, and energy infrastructure means fund performance is closely tied to the trajectory of AI infrastructure buildout.

Key Uncertainties

Several uncertainties affect the fund’s prospects and positioning:

AI Development Timelines: The fund’s investment thesis depends heavily on Aschenbrenner’s forecast of rapid AI advancement toward AGI by the mid-to-late 2020s. If AI development proves slower than anticipated or encounters unexpected technical bottlenecks, demand for AI infrastructure may not materialize at projected levels, potentially affecting portfolio company valuations.

Competition and Market Efficiency: As more investors recognize AI infrastructure opportunities, the edge from identifying these companies may diminish. The fund’s strong 2025 performance occurred during a period when many AI-related stocks were rising broadly; whether SALP can sustain outperformance as these opportunities become more crowded remains uncertain.

Regulatory and Policy Developments: Government policies regarding AI development, data center energy consumption, semiconductor exports, and AI safety requirements could significantly impact portfolio companies. Changes in U.S.-China technology policy, energy regulations, or AI governance frameworks could create both risks and opportunities for the fund’s holdings.

Sustainability of Investment Approach: While Aschenbrenner’s technical AI knowledge provides analytical advantages, translating AI forecasting into consistent investment returns requires different skills. Whether his approach will prove successful across multiple market cycles and varying conditions remains to be demonstrated beyond the initial strong performance.

Alignment of Fund Strategy with Essay Conclusions: The essay “Situational Awareness” emphasizes both opportunities and risks from rapid AI advancement, including potential national security implications and alignment challenges. The extent to which the fund’s profit-focused investment strategy aligns with or tensions with broader concerns about AI development trajectories represents an unresolved question about the relationship between the two projects sharing the “Situational Awareness” name.