Approaches
Approaches and methodologies for building epistemic infrastructure:
Forecasting Approaches:
- Prediction MarketsInterventionPrediction MarketsPrediction markets achieve Brier scores of 0.16-0.24 (15-25% better than polls) by aggregating dispersed information through financial incentives, with platforms handling $1-3B annually. For AI saf...Quality: 56/100: Market-based aggregation of probabilistic beliefs
- AI-Augmented ForecastingInterventionAI-Augmented ForecastingAI-augmented forecasting combines AI computational strengths with human judgment, achieving 5-15% Brier score improvements and 50-200x cost reductions compared to human-only forecasting. However, A...Quality: 54/100: Using AI to enhance prediction capabilities
- AI-Human Hybrid SystemsInterventionAI-Human Hybrid SystemsHybrid AI-human systems achieve 15-40% error reduction across domains through six design patterns, with evidence from Meta (23% false positive reduction), Stanford Healthcare (27% diagnostic improv...Quality: 91/100: Combining human judgment with AI capabilities
Deliberation & Coordination:
- AI-Assisted DeliberationInterventionAI-Assisted DeliberationComprehensive analysis of AI-assisted deliberation platforms showing 15-35% opinion change rates, with Taiwan's vTaiwan achieving 80% policy implementation across 26 issues and Anthropic's Constitu...Quality: 63/100: Technology-mediated group reasoning
- Coordination TechnologiesInterventionCoordination TechnologiesComprehensive analysis of coordination mechanisms for AI safety showing racing dynamics could compress safety timelines by 2-5 years, with $500M+ government investment in AI Safety Institutes achie...Quality: 91/100: Tools for collective action and decision-making
Verification & Authentication:
- Content AuthenticationInterventionContent AuthenticationContent authentication via C2PA and watermarking (10B+ images) offers superior robustness to failing detection methods (55% accuracy), with EU AI Act mandates by August 2026 driving adoption among ...Quality: 58/100: Provenance and authenticity verification
- Deepfake DetectionDeepfake DetectionComprehensive analysis of deepfake detection showing best commercial detectors achieve 78-87% in-the-wild accuracy vs 96%+ in controlled settings, with Deepfake-Eval-2024 benchmark revealing 45-50%...Quality: 91/100: AI-generated content identification
See also Epistemic InfrastructureInterventionEpistemic InfrastructureComprehensive analysis of epistemic infrastructure showing AI fact-checking achieves 85-87% accuracy at $0.10-$1.00 per claim versus $50-200 for human verification, while Community Notes reduces mi...Quality: 59/100 for the broader context of these approaches.