Tools & Platforms

Specific tools and platforms in the epistemic infrastructure space:

Forecasting & Prediction:

• SquiggleConceptSquiggleSquiggle is a domain-specific probabilistic programming language optimized for intuition-driven estimation rather than data-driven inference, developed by QURI and adopted primarily in the EA commu...Quality: 41/100: Probabilistic programming language for uncertainty quantification
• SquiggleAIConceptSquiggleAISquiggleAI is an LLM tool (primarily Claude Sonnet 4.5) that generates probabilistic Squiggle models from natural language, using ~20K tokens of cached documentation to produce 100-500 line models ...Quality: 37/100: LLM-powered probabilistic model generation
• MetaforecastConceptMetaforecastMetaforecast is a forecast aggregation platform combining 2,100+ questions from 10+ sources (Metaculus, Manifold, Polymarket, etc.) with daily updates via automated scraping. Created by QURI, it pr...Quality: 35/100: Cross-platform forecast aggregation

Benchmarking:

• ForecastBenchConceptForecastBenchForecastBench is a dynamic, contamination-free benchmark with 1,000 continuously-updated questions comparing LLM forecasting to superforecasters. GPT-4.5 achieves 0.101 Brier score vs 0.081 for sup...Quality: 53/100: Dynamic benchmark for AI forecasting capabilities
• AI Forecasting Benchmark TournamentConceptAI Forecasting Benchmark TournamentQuarterly competition (Q2 2025: 348 questions, 54 bot-makers, $30K prizes) comparing human Pro Forecasters against AI bots, with statistical testing showing humans maintain significant lead (p=0.00...Quality: 41/100: Human vs AI forecasting competition

Research Coordination:

• XPTConceptXPT (Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament)A 2022 forecasting tournament with 169 participants found superforecasters severely underestimated AI progress (2.3% probability for IMO gold vs actual 2025 achievement) and gave 8x lower AI extinc...Quality: 54/100: Structured adversarial collaboration on existential risks

Verification:

• X Community NotesCommunity NotesCommunity Notes uses a bridging algorithm requiring cross-partisan consensus to display fact-checks, reducing retweets 25-50% when notes appear. However, only 8.3% of notes achieve visibility, taki...Quality: 54/100: Crowdsourced fact-checking at scale

These tools aim to improve decision-making on high-stakes questions, particularly around AI development and existential risk.