Longterm Wiki has not been actively maintained since May 2026. Some data is still updated occasionally, but please don't rely on this site being current or accurate.
Pioneered prediction markets (since 1988); invented Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR); proposed futarchy governance; originated Great Filter hypothesis; authored The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain; 5,200+ citations
Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University; Research Associate at Future of Humanity InstituteOrganizationFuture of Humanity InstituteThe Future of Humanity Institute (2005-2024) was a pioneering Oxford research center that founded existential risk studies and AI alignment research, growing from 3 to ~50 researchers and receiving...Quality: 51/100, Oxford University
Major Contributions
Pioneered prediction marketsApproachPrediction Markets (AI Forecasting)Prediction markets achieve Brier scores of 0.16-0.24 (15-25% better than polls) by aggregating dispersed information through financial incentives, with platforms handling $1-3B annually. For AI saf...Quality: 56/100 (1988-present); invented Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR); proposed futarchy governance system; originated Great Filter hypothesis
Key Publications
The Age of Em (2016); The Elephant in the Brain (2018, with Kevin Simler); 90+ academic publications with 5,200+ citations
AI Safety Stance
Skeptical of fast takeoff and existential risk scenarios; emphasizes gradual transitions allowing for testing and correction
Controversies
2003 DARPA Policy Analysis Market cancellation; 2019 EA Munich disinvitation; characterized as "too far ahead of his time" and "America's creepiest economist"