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AI Timelines - Footnote 22

Verdictpartial90%
1 check · 4/3/2026

The claim states that the review identified Cotra's biological anchors as the most compelling inside-view model and Davidson's semi-informative priors as the most compelling outside-view model as of 2023. However, the source states that the Epoch AI team found Cotra's biological anchors as the most compelling inside-view model and Davidson's semi-informative priors as the best-rated outside-view model. The claim also omits that the best-rated judgment-based forecast was Samotsvety’s AGI Timelines Forecast.

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partial90%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

NoteThe claim states that the review identified Cotra's biological anchors as the most compelling inside-view model and Davidson's semi-informative priors as the most compelling outside-view model as of 2023. However, the source states that the Epoch AI team found Cotra's biological anchors as the most compelling inside-view model and Davidson's semi-informative priors as the best-rated outside-view model. The claim also omits that the best-rated judgment-based forecast was Samotsvety’s AGI Timelines Forecast.

Case № page:ai-timelines:fn22Filed 4/3/2026Confidence 90%