Citation·page:ai-timelines:fn46

AI Timelines - Footnote 46

Verdictpartial85%

1 check · 4/3/2026

The claim mentions an aggregated AGI timeline dashboard, but the source only mentions individual questions on Metaculus, Manifold Markets, and Kalshi. The source does not explicitly state that observers attribute the differing resolution criteria to differing operationalizations of AGI rather than genuine disagreement about underlying probabilities, although it does imply this.

Our claim

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Source evidence

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forecastingaifutures.substack.com/p/forecasting-agi-insights-from-prediction-markets resource

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

NoteThe claim mentions an aggregated AGI timeline dashboard, but the source only mentions individual questions on Metaculus, Manifold Markets, and Kalshi. The source does not explicitly state that observers attribute the differing resolution criteria to differing operationalizations of AGI rather than genuine disagreement about underlying probabilities, although it does imply this.

Case № page:ai-timelines:fn46Filed 4/3/2026Confidence 85%