Citation·page:ai-timelines:fn9

AI Timelines - Footnote 9

Verdictpartial90%

1 check · 4/3/2026

The claim states 'approximately 4% probability of AGI by 2036', but the source states 'pr(AGI by 2036) = 4%' for a specific scenario, not as a central estimate. The claim states 'with a preferred range of 1-10%', but the source states 'My central estimate is about 8%, but other parameter choices I find plausible yield results anywhere from 1% to 18%.'

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www.openphilanthropy.org/research/semi-informative-priors-over-ai-timelines/resource

partial90%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

NoteThe claim states 'approximately 4% probability of AGI by 2036', but the source states 'pr(AGI by 2036) = 4%' for a specific scenario, not as a central estimate. The claim states 'with a preferred range of 1-10%', but the source states 'My central estimate is about 8%, but other parameter choices I find plausible yield results anywhere from 1% to 18%.'

Case № page:ai-timelines:fn9Filed 4/3/2026Confidence 90%