Citation·page:good-judgment:fn75

Good Judgment (Forecasting) - Footnote 75

Verdictpartial90%

1 check · 4/3/2026

The claim states that superforecasters outperformed prediction markets by 15-30%, but the source says teams of superforecasters outperformed prediction markets by 15-30%. The claim states that superforecasters outperformed intelligence analysts by 25-30%, but the source says that the Good Judgment Project outperformed a prediction market inside the intelligence community by 25-30%.

Our claim

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Source evidence

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forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/W94KjunX3hXAtZvXJ/evidence-on-good-forecasting-practices-from-the-good-1 resource

partial90%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

NoteThe claim states that superforecasters outperformed prediction markets by 15-30%, but the source says teams of superforecasters outperformed prediction markets by 15-30%. The claim states that superforecasters outperformed intelligence analysts by 25-30%, but the source says that the Good Judgment Project outperformed a prediction market inside the intelligence community by 25-30%.

Case № page:good-judgment:fn75Filed 4/3/2026Confidence 90%