Citation·page:good-judgment:fn9

Good Judgment (Forecasting) - Footnote 9

Verdictcontradicted60%

1 check · 4/3/2026

WRONG NUMBERS: The source does not mention 1 million forecasts or 500 questions. FABRICATED DETAILS: The source does not mention Venezuelan gas subsidies or North Korean politics. MISLEADING PARAPHRASE: The claim implies that the project as a whole recruited forecasters, but the source only mentions Jean-Pierre Beugoms being recruited.

Our claim

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Source evidence

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goodjudgment.com/about/our-team/superforecaster-profiles/jean-pierre-beugoms/resource

contradicted60%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

NoteWRONG NUMBERS: The source does not mention 1 million forecasts or 500 questions. FABRICATED DETAILS: The source does not mention Venezuelan gas subsidies or North Korean politics. MISLEADING PARAPHRASE: The claim implies that the project as a whole recruited forecasters, but the source only mentions Jean-Pierre Beugoms being recruited.

Case № page:good-judgment:fn9Filed 4/3/2026Confidence 60%