Philip Tetlock - Footnote 38
The source does not explicitly state that superforecasters were 'approximately 60-85% more accurate than average forecasters'. It only mentions that they are 'far more accurate than I would have ever supposed possible'. The source does not explicitly state that superforecasters demonstrated the ability to distinguish '10-15 degrees of uncertainty'. It does mention that they are skillful at 'finding information, synthesizing it, and applying it, and then updating the response to new information.'
Our claim
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Source evidence
1 src · 1 checkNoteThe source does not explicitly state that superforecasters were 'approximately 60-85% more accurate than average forecasters'. It only mentions that they are 'far more accurate than I would have ever supposed possible'. The source does not explicitly state that superforecasters demonstrated the ability to distinguish '10-15 degrees of uncertainty'. It does mention that they are skillful at 'finding information, synthesizing it, and applying it, and then updating the response to new information.'