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Philip Tetlock - Footnote 46

Verdictpartial85%
1 check · 4/3/2026

The source does not explicitly state that foxes only 'modestly' exceeded simple benchmarks. It says they sometimes beat extrapolation algorithms, but not by a wide margin. The claim mentions 'extrapolation algorithms' as a benchmark, while the source mentions 'simple extrapolation algorithms'.

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partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

NoteThe source does not explicitly state that foxes only 'modestly' exceeded simple benchmarks. It says they sometimes beat extrapolation algorithms, but not by a wide margin. The claim mentions 'extrapolation algorithms' as a benchmark, while the source mentions 'simple extrapolation algorithms'.

Case № page:philip-tetlock:fn46Filed 4/3/2026Confidence 85%