Philip Tetlock - Footnote 5
The claim states that Tetlock initiated the forecasting tournaments during the Cold War era, but the source says the Committee on Nuclear War Prevention was formed during the Cold War tensions of the early 1980s. This is a slight difference in phrasing. The claim states that the analysis was of over 82,000 predictions, but the source says the IARPA tournament involved over a million forecasts. The 82,000 predictions are not mentioned in the context of the IARPA tournament. The claim states that there were 284 experts, but the source says 'hundreds of experts'.
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1 src · 1 checkNoteThe claim states that Tetlock initiated the forecasting tournaments during the Cold War era, but the source says the Committee on Nuclear War Prevention was formed during the Cold War tensions of the early 1980s. This is a slight difference in phrasing. The claim states that the analysis was of over 82,000 predictions, but the source says the IARPA tournament involved over a million forecasts. The 82,000 predictions are not mentioned in the context of the IARPA tournament. The claim states that there were 284 experts, but the source says 'hundreds of experts'.