Citation·page:philip-tetlock:fn52

Philip Tetlock - Footnote 52

Verdictpartial85%

1 check · 4/3/2026

The source mentions weighted averaging, but refers to it as a method of aggregating individual forecasts, not of adjusting crowd predictions to account for shared information. The source mentions Bayesian belief adjustment, but not Bayesian question clusters.

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www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-how-to-win-at-forecasting

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

NoteThe source mentions weighted averaging, but refers to it as a method of aggregating individual forecasts, not of adjusting crowd predictions to account for shared information. The source mentions Bayesian belief adjustment, but not Bayesian question clusters.

Case № page:philip-tetlock:fn52Filed 4/3/2026Confidence 85%