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Philip Tetlock - Footnote 61

Verdictcontradicted60%
1 check · 4/3/2026

The claim mentions 'lack of feedback loops for learning from errors on long-term predictions', 'the difficulty of recruiting sufficient expertise', and 'the potential for information hazards'. While the source mentions recruiting the right talent and managing information hazards, it does not explicitly mention the lack of feedback loops for learning from errors on long-term predictions.

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contradicted60%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

NoteThe claim mentions 'lack of feedback loops for learning from errors on long-term predictions', 'the difficulty of recruiting sufficient expertise', and 'the potential for information hazards'. While the source mentions recruiting the right talent and managing information hazards, it does not explicitly mention the lack of feedback loops for learning from errors on long-term predictions.

Case № page:philip-tetlock:fn61Filed 4/3/2026Confidence 60%