Citation·page:philip-tetlock:fn75

Philip Tetlock - Footnote 75

Verdictpartial85%

1 check · 4/3/2026

The source states that hedgehogs would have been beaten by the chimp, not that they performed worse than basic models. The source states that simple extrapolation algorithms performed better than the average expert, not basic models. The source does not mention that the practical significance of foxes' advantage over simple algorithms remains debated.

Our claim

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Source evidence

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www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/11/dan-gardner-philip-tetlock/overcoming-our-aversion-acknowledging-our-ignorance

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

NoteThe source states that hedgehogs would have been beaten by the chimp, not that they performed worse than basic models. The source states that simple extrapolation algorithms performed better than the average expert, not basic models. The source does not mention that the practical significance of foxes' advantage over simple algorithms remains debated.

Case № page:philip-tetlock:fn75Filed 4/3/2026Confidence 85%