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Philip Tetlock - Footnote 97

Verdictpartial85%
1 check · 4/3/2026

The claim that superforecasters were '30% more accurate on average than futures markets' is not directly supported by the source. The source only states that superforecasters 'continued to beat the market so far this year when it comes to anticipating Fed decisions'. The claim mentions 'the continued relevance of Tetlock's forecasting methods', but the source does not explicitly mention this.

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partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

NoteThe claim that superforecasters were '30% more accurate on average than futures markets' is not directly supported by the source. The source only states that superforecasters 'continued to beat the market so far this year when it comes to anticipating Fed decisions'. The claim mentions 'the continued relevance of Tetlock's forecasting methods', but the source does not explicitly mention this.

Case № page:philip-tetlock:fn97Filed 4/3/2026Confidence 85%