Skip to content
Longterm Wiki
Index
Grant·dQhz3Z9tmK·Record·Profile

Grant: Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Risk (Manifund → Ryan Kupyn)

Verdictcontradicted95%
1 check · 4/9/2026

The amount field claims $345, but the source explicitly states '$312 raised'. This is a clear numerical contradiction (13% difference, well outside acceptable variance). Additionally, the date claim of 2023-02-28 cannot be verified from the source text, which shows a Wayback Machine capture from June 2025 and project updates dated approximately 2 years prior. The grantee (Ryan Kupyn) and funder (Manifund) are confirmed, and the project name is confirmed, but the amount and date are problematic.

Our claim

entire record

No record data available.

Source evidence

1 src · 1 check
contradicted95%Haiku 4.5 · 4/9/2026

NoteThe amount field claims $345, but the source explicitly states '$312 raised'. This is a clear numerical contradiction (13% difference, well outside acceptable variance). Additionally, the date claim of 2023-02-28 cannot be verified from the source text, which shows a Wayback Machine capture from June 2025 and project updates dated approximately 2 years prior. The grantee (Ryan Kupyn) and funder (Manifund) are confirmed, and the project name is confirmed, but the amount and date are problematic.

Case № dQhz3Z9tmKFiled 4/9/2026Confidence 95%