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Grant: Hypermind — AI Forecasting Tournament (Coefficient Giving → Good Judgment (Forecasting))

Verdictpartial67%
1 check · 4/9/2026

Partial deterministic match: amount, date matched but grantee did not (2714 rows)

Our claim

entire record
Name
Hypermind — AI Forecasting Tournament
Amount
$121,124
Currency
USD
Date
March 2021
Notes
[Forecasting] Grant investigator: Luke Muehlhauser This page was reviewed but not written by the grant investigator. Hypermind staff also reviewed this page prior to publication. Open Philanthropy recommended a contract of $121,124 with Hypermind to collaborate with Metaculusexpand[Forecasting] Grant investigator: Luke Muehlhauser This page was reviewed but not written by the grant investigator. Hypermind staff also reviewed this page prior to publication. Open Philanthropy recommended a contract of $121,124 with Hypermind to collaborate with Metaculus on an AI development forecasting tournament. Forecasts will cover the themes of hardware and supercomputing, performance and benchmarks, research trends, and economic and financial impact. This falls within our focus area of potential risks from advanced artificial intelligence. This project was supported through a contractor agreement. While we typically do not publish pages for contractor agreements, we occasionally opt to do so.

Source evidence

1 src · 1 check
partial67%deterministic-row-match · 4/9/2026
Name
Hypermind — AI Forecasting Tournament
Grantee
Hypermind
Focus Area
Forecasting
Amount
$121,124.00
Date
March 2021
Description
Grant investigator: Luke Muehlhauser Th

NotePartial deterministic match: amount, date matched but grantee did not (2714 rows)

Case № te_U_ruWfJFiled 4/9/2026Confidence 67%