Disinformation Detection Arms Race Model

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  "title": "Disinformation Detection Arms Race Model",
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  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Models adversarial dynamics between AI generation and detection of synthetic content, projecting detection accuracy will fall from 65% (2024) to ~50% (near-random) by 2030 under medium adversarial pressure. Recommends prioritizing cryptographic provenance systems (C2PA) over content detection, with \\$200-400M investment having 30% chance of averting crisis.",
  "description": "This model analyzes the arms race between AI generation and detection. It projects detection falling to near-random (50%) by 2030 under medium adversarial pressure.",
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