Electoral Impact Assessment Model

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  "title": "Electoral Impact Assessment Model",
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  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "This model estimates AI's marginal electoral impact across three vectors — disinformation influence, infrastructure attacks, and voter suppression. Analysis finds 0.2-5% probability of flipping individual elections via influence alone (1-3 elections globally per year), with AI-powered voter roll manipulation, targeted demobilization, and election infrastructure cyberattacks creating compounding risks. Romania 2024 provides the first case of election annulment due to AI-enhanced interference. Systemic trust erosion (2-5% annual decline) may matter more than specific election outcomes.",
  "description": "This model estimates AI's marginal impact on elections across three vectors — disinformation influence, infrastructure attacks, and voter suppression. Includes the Romania 2024 annulment case study, AI-enhanced election cyberattacks, voter roll manipulation, and targeted demobilization campaigns.",
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      "text": "Scientific Reports 2024",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-53755-0",
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      "resourceTitle": "The potential of generative AI for personalized persuasion at scale | Scientific Reports"
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      "text": "Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review",
      "url": "https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/the-origin-of-public-concerns-over-ai-supercharging-misinformation-in-the-2024-u-s-presidential-election/",
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No external links