Expertise Atrophy Cascade Model

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  "title": "Expertise Atrophy Cascade Model",
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  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
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  "llmSummary": "This model quantifies how AI assistance degrades human expertise through cascading feedback loops across individual (1-5 years), institutional (5-15 years), and generational (15-40+ years) timescales. Central estimates suggest AI dependency doubles every 2-3 years (1.7x per cycle), Generation 1 users lose 40-60% capability by 2035, and irreversibility occurs between Gen 2-3 (2035-2050) without intervention, though market correction scenarios (48% combined probability) suggest less deterministic outcomes.",
  "description": "This model analyzes cascading skill degradation from AI dependency. It estimates dependency approximately doubles every 2-3 years (1.7x per cycle), with 40-60% capability loss in Gen 1 users.",
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        "title": "Expertise Atrophy Progression Model",
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