Expertise Atrophy Progression Model

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  "title": "Expertise Atrophy Progression Model",
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  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Five-phase model tracking progression from AI augmentation to irreversible skill loss, finding humans decline to 50-70% baseline capability in Phase 3 (years 5-15) with reversibility becoming difficult after 3-10 years of heavy use. Critical threshold occurs at Phase 3-4 transition when last pre-AI experts retire and infrastructure fully assumes AI, estimated 10-30 years from AI introduction depending on domain.",
  "description": "This model traces five phases from AI augmentation to irreversible skill loss. It finds humans decline to 50-70% of baseline capability in Phase 3, with reversibility becoming difficult after 3-10 years of heavy AI use.",
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