Fraud Sophistication Curve Model

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  "title": "Fraud Sophistication Curve Model",
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  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "This model analyzes AI-enabled fraud evolution through a six-tier sophistication ladder, projecting annual losses of \\$75-130B by 2028 (from \\$17-22B in 2024) with 33% annual growth. It finds AI-personalized attacks achieve 20-30% higher success rates, defense adaptation lags attacks by 12-36 months, and reducing this lag to 12 months could save \\$30-40B annually by 2028.",
  "description": "This model analyzes AI-enabled fraud evolution. It finds AI-personalized attacks achieve 20-30% higher success rates, with technique diffusion time of 8-24 months and defense adaptation lagging by 12-36 months.",
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