Goal Misgeneralization Probability Model

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  "summary": "Quantitative framework estimating goal misgeneralization probability from 3.6% (superficial distribution shift) to 27.7% (extreme shift), with modifiers for specification quality (0.5x-2.0x), capability level (0.5x-3.0x), and alignment methods (0.4x-1.5x). Meta-analysis of 60+ cases shows 87% capability transfer rate with 76% goal failure conditional probability, projecting 2-3x risk increase by 2028-2030 for autonomous deployment.",
  "description": "Quantitative framework estimating goal misgeneralization probability across deployment scenarios. Analyzes how distribution shift magnitude, training objective quality, and capability level affect risk from ~1% to 50%+. Provides actionable deployment and research guidance.",
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