Goal Misgeneralization Probability Model

{
  "id": "goal-misgeneralization-probability",
  "numericId": null,
  "path": "/knowledge-base/models/goal-misgeneralization-probability/",
  "filePath": "knowledge-base/models/goal-misgeneralization-probability.mdx",
  "title": "Goal Misgeneralization Probability Model",
  "quality": 61,
  "readerImportance": 86.5,
  "researchImportance": 74.5,
  "tacticalValue": 55,
  "contentFormat": "article",
  "tractability": null,
  "neglectedness": null,
  "uncertainty": null,
  "causalLevel": null,
  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "llmSummary": "Quantitative framework estimating goal misgeneralization probability from 3.6% (superficial distribution shift) to 27.7% (extreme shift), with modifiers for specification quality (0.5x-2.0x), capability level (0.5x-3.0x), and alignment methods (0.4x-1.5x). Meta-analysis of 60+ cases shows 87% capability transfer rate with 76% goal failure conditional probability, projecting 2-3x risk increase by 2028-2030 for autonomous deployment.",
  "description": "Quantitative framework estimating goal misgeneralization probability across deployment scenarios. Analyzes how distribution shift magnitude, training objective quality, and capability level affect risk from ~1% to 50%+. Provides actionable deployment and research guidance.",
  "ratings": {
    "focus": 8.5,
    "novelty": 4.5,
    "rigor": 6,
    "completeness": 7.5,
    "concreteness": 7,
    "actionability": 6.5
  },
  "category": "models",
  "subcategory": "risk-models",
  "clusters": [
    "ai-safety"
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "wordCount": 1747,
    "tableCount": 14,
    "diagramCount": 3,
    "internalLinks": 44,
    "externalLinks": 0,
    "footnoteCount": 0,
    "bulletRatio": 0.03,
    "sectionCount": 30,
    "hasOverview": true,
    "structuralScore": 12
  },
  "suggestedQuality": 80,
  "updateFrequency": 90,
  "evergreen": true,
  "wordCount": 1747,
  "unconvertedLinks": [],
  "unconvertedLinkCount": 0,
  "convertedLinkCount": 23,
  "backlinkCount": 1,
  "hallucinationRisk": {
    "level": "medium",
    "score": 60,
    "factors": [
      "no-citations",
      "few-external-sources"
    ]
  },
  "entityType": "analysis",
  "redundancy": {
    "maxSimilarity": 17,
    "similarPages": [
      {
        "id": "mesa-optimization-analysis",
        "title": "Mesa-Optimization Risk Analysis",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/mesa-optimization-analysis/",
        "similarity": 17
      },
      {
        "id": "scheming-likelihood-model",
        "title": "Scheming Likelihood Assessment",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/scheming-likelihood-model/",
        "similarity": 16
      },
      {
        "id": "corrigibility-failure-pathways",
        "title": "Corrigibility Failure Pathways",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/corrigibility-failure-pathways/",
        "similarity": 15
      },
      {
        "id": "deceptive-alignment-decomposition",
        "title": "Deceptive Alignment Decomposition Model",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/deceptive-alignment-decomposition/",
        "similarity": 15
      },
      {
        "id": "instrumental-convergence-framework",
        "title": "Instrumental Convergence Framework",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/instrumental-convergence-framework/",
        "similarity": 15
      }
    ]
  },
  "coverage": {
    "passing": 8,
    "total": 13,
    "targets": {
      "tables": 7,
      "diagrams": 1,
      "internalLinks": 14,
      "externalLinks": 9,
      "footnotes": 5,
      "references": 5
    },
    "actuals": {
      "tables": 14,
      "diagrams": 3,
      "internalLinks": 44,
      "externalLinks": 0,
      "footnotes": 0,
      "references": 15,
      "quotesWithQuotes": 0,
      "quotesTotal": 0,
      "accuracyChecked": 0,
      "accuracyTotal": 0
    },
    "items": {
      "llmSummary": "green",
      "schedule": "green",
      "entity": "green",
      "editHistory": "red",
      "overview": "green",
      "tables": "green",
      "diagrams": "green",
      "internalLinks": "green",
      "externalLinks": "red",
      "footnotes": "red",
      "references": "green",
      "quotes": "red",
      "accuracy": "red"
    },
    "ratingsString": "N:4.5 R:6 A:6.5 C:7.5"
  },
  "readerRank": 41,
  "researchRank": 122,
  "recommendedScore": 186.85
}

No external links