Irreversibility Threshold Model

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  "title": "Irreversibility Threshold Model",
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  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Analyzes when AI decisions become permanently locked-in across technical, economic, social, political, and existential dimensions, estimating 25% probability of crossing infeasible-reversal thresholds by 2035 with 4-5 year expected time to major threshold. Provides specific reversal cost trajectories (e.g., model weights become practically irreversible within 1 week post-release) and identifies that the 2025-2028 window is critical for intervention in the most likely competitive lock-in scenario (45% probability).",
  "description": "This model analyzes when AI decisions become permanently locked-in. It estimates 25% probability of crossing infeasible-reversal thresholds by 2035, with expected time to major threshold at 4-5 years.",
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