Power-Seeking Emergence Conditions Model

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  "summary": "Formal decomposition of power-seeking emergence into six quantified conditions, estimating current systems at 6.4% probability rising to 22% (2-4 years) and 36.5% (5-10 years). Provides concrete mitigation strategies with cost estimates (\\$10-100M/year) and implementation timelines across immediate, medium, and long-term horizons.",
  "description": "A formal analysis of six conditions enabling AI power-seeking behaviors, estimating 60-90% probability in sufficiently capable optimizers and emergence at 50-70% of optimal task performance.",
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