AI Proliferation Risk Model

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  "llmSummary": "Quantitative model of AI capability diffusion across 5 actor tiers, documenting compression from 24-36 months (2020) to 12-18 months (2024) with projections of 6-12 months by 2025-2026. Identifies compute governance (70-85% effectiveness) and pre-deployment gates (60-80%) as highest-leverage interventions before irreversible open-source proliferation, with specific actor-level risk calculations showing 5,000 expected misuse events at Tier 4-5 proliferation.",
  "description": "Mathematical analysis of AI capability diffusion across 5 actor tiers, finding diffusion times compressed from 24-36 months to 12-18 months, with projections of 6-12 months by 2025-2026. Identifies compute governance and pre-proliferation decision gates as high-leverage interventions before irreversible open-source proliferation occurs.",
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  "eaForum": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/proliferation"
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