Public Opinion Evolution Model

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  "title": "Public Opinion Evolution Model",
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  "lastUpdated": "2026-02-02",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Analysis finds major AI incidents shift public opinion by 10-25 percentage points with 6-12 month half-life, but elite opinion has 3-5x stronger policy influence than mass public opinion. Recommends prioritizing elite/policymaker engagement (\\$5-15M annually) over mass campaigns (\\$30-100M) given slow, indirect opinion-to-policy translation (10-20% conversion rate).",
  "description": "This model analyzes how public AI risk perception evolves. It finds major incidents shift opinion by 10-25 percentage points, decaying with 6-12 month half-life.",
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