Public Opinion Evolution Model

{
  "id": "public-opinion-evolution",
  "numericId": null,
  "path": "/knowledge-base/models/public-opinion-evolution/",
  "filePath": "knowledge-base/models/public-opinion-evolution.mdx",
  "title": "Public Opinion Evolution Model",
  "quality": 48,
  "readerImportance": 71,
  "researchImportance": 74,
  "tacticalValue": null,
  "contentFormat": "article",
  "tractability": null,
  "neglectedness": null,
  "uncertainty": null,
  "causalLevel": null,
  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "llmSummary": "Analysis finds major AI incidents shift public opinion by 10-25 percentage points with 6-12 month half-life, but elite opinion has 3-5x stronger policy influence than mass public opinion. Recommends prioritizing elite/policymaker engagement (\\$5-15M annually) over mass campaigns (\\$30-100M) given slow, indirect opinion-to-policy translation (10-20% conversion rate).",
  "description": "This model analyzes how public AI risk perception evolves. It finds major incidents shift opinion by 10-25 percentage points, decaying with 6-12 month half-life.",
  "ratings": {
    "focus": 8.5,
    "novelty": 4,
    "rigor": 4.5,
    "completeness": 7,
    "concreteness": 6.5,
    "actionability": 5.5
  },
  "category": "models",
  "subcategory": "governance-models",
  "clusters": [
    "governance",
    "epistemics",
    "ai-safety"
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "wordCount": 2848,
    "tableCount": 14,
    "diagramCount": 1,
    "internalLinks": 4,
    "externalLinks": 0,
    "footnoteCount": 0,
    "bulletRatio": 0.32,
    "sectionCount": 41,
    "hasOverview": true,
    "structuralScore": 11
  },
  "suggestedQuality": 73,
  "updateFrequency": 90,
  "evergreen": true,
  "wordCount": 2848,
  "unconvertedLinks": [],
  "unconvertedLinkCount": 0,
  "convertedLinkCount": 0,
  "backlinkCount": 1,
  "hallucinationRisk": {
    "level": "medium",
    "score": 60,
    "factors": [
      "no-citations",
      "few-external-sources"
    ]
  },
  "entityType": "analysis",
  "redundancy": {
    "maxSimilarity": 20,
    "similarPages": [
      {
        "id": "media-policy-feedback-loop",
        "title": "Media-Policy Feedback Loop Model",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/media-policy-feedback-loop/",
        "similarity": 20
      },
      {
        "id": "epistemic-collapse-threshold",
        "title": "Epistemic Collapse Threshold Model",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/epistemic-collapse-threshold/",
        "similarity": 14
      },
      {
        "id": "institutional-adaptation-speed",
        "title": "Institutional Adaptation Speed Model",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/institutional-adaptation-speed/",
        "similarity": 14
      },
      {
        "id": "short-timeline-policy-implications",
        "title": "Short Timeline Policy Implications",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/short-timeline-policy-implications/",
        "similarity": 14
      },
      {
        "id": "societal-response",
        "title": "Societal Response & Adaptation Model",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/societal-response/",
        "similarity": 14
      }
    ]
  },
  "coverage": {
    "passing": 6,
    "total": 13,
    "targets": {
      "tables": 11,
      "diagrams": 1,
      "internalLinks": 23,
      "externalLinks": 14,
      "footnotes": 9,
      "references": 9
    },
    "actuals": {
      "tables": 14,
      "diagrams": 1,
      "internalLinks": 4,
      "externalLinks": 0,
      "footnotes": 0,
      "references": 0,
      "quotesWithQuotes": 0,
      "quotesTotal": 0,
      "accuracyChecked": 0,
      "accuracyTotal": 0
    },
    "items": {
      "llmSummary": "green",
      "schedule": "green",
      "entity": "green",
      "editHistory": "red",
      "overview": "green",
      "tables": "green",
      "diagrams": "green",
      "internalLinks": "amber",
      "externalLinks": "red",
      "footnotes": "red",
      "references": "red",
      "quotes": "red",
      "accuracy": "red"
    },
    "ratingsString": "N:4 R:4.5 A:5.5 C:7"
  },
  "readerRank": 158,
  "researchRank": 127,
  "recommendedScore": 153.31
}

No external links