Regulatory Capacity Threshold Model

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  "summary": "Quantitative model estimating current US/UK regulatory capacity at 0.15-0.25 versus 0.4-0.6 threshold needed, with capacity ratio declining from 0.20 to 0.02 by 2028 under baseline assumptions. Concludes 3-5 year window exists requiring crisis-level investment (80-150% capacity growth rate increases) to close gap before it becomes irreversible.",
  "description": "This model estimates minimum regulatory capacity for credible AI oversight. It finds current US/UK capacity at 0.15-0.25 of the 0.4-0.6 threshold needed, with a 3-5 year window to build capacity before capability acceleration makes catch-up prohibitively difficult.",
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