AI Cyber Damage: Bounding the Tail

{
  "id": "ai-cyber-damage-bounding-tail",
  "wikiId": "E2520",
  "path": "/knowledge-base/models/ai-cyber-damage-bounding-tail/",
  "filePath": "knowledge-base/models/ai-cyber-damage-bounding-tail.mdx",
  "title": "AI Cyber Damage: Bounding the Tail",
  "quality": null,
  "readerImportance": null,
  "researchImportance": null,
  "tacticalValue": null,
  "contentFormat": "article",
  "causalLevel": null,
  "lastUpdated": "2026-04-25",
  "dateCreated": "2026-04-25",
  "summary": null,
  "description": "Probability-weighted synthesis answer to \"How likely is AI-enabled cyber damage to exceed 10% of global GDP by year Y?\" — pulls from damage estimates, insurance market signals, tail-risk catalog, and incident base rate.",
  "ratings": null,
  "category": "models",
  "subcategory": "analysis-models",
  "clusters": [
    "cyber",
    "ai-safety"
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "wordCount": 2063,
    "tableCount": 2,
    "diagramCount": 0,
    "internalLinks": 14,
    "externalLinks": 6,
    "footnoteCount": 1,
    "bulletRatio": 0.43,
    "sectionCount": 12,
    "hasOverview": false,
    "structuralScore": 10
  },
  "suggestedQuality": 67,
  "updateFrequency": null,
  "evergreen": true,
  "wordCount": 2063,
  "unconvertedLinks": [
    {
      "text": "September 2025 Anthropic-disclosed campaign",
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/disrupting-AI-espionage",
      "resourceId": "4ba107b71a0707f9",
      "resourceTitle": "first documented AI-orchestrated cyberattack"
    },
    {
      "text": "RAND (RRA2977-2, 2024)",
      "url": "https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2977-2.html",
      "resourceId": "0fe4cfa7ca5f2270",
      "resourceTitle": "RAND Corporation study"
    },
    {
      "text": "\"Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?\"",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13353",
      "resourceId": "6e597a4dc1f6f860",
      "resourceTitle": "Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?"
    }
  ],
  "unconvertedLinkCount": 3,
  "convertedLinkCount": 0,
  "backlinkCount": 1,
  "hallucinationRisk": {
    "level": "medium",
    "score": 50,
    "factors": [
      "low-citation-density"
    ]
  },
  "entityType": "analysis",
  "redundancy": {
    "maxSimilarity": 20,
    "similarPages": [
      {
        "id": "catastrophic-cyber-tail-risk",
        "title": "Catastrophic Cyber Tail Risk",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/risks/catastrophic-cyber-tail-risk/",
        "similarity": 20
      },
      {
        "id": "bioweapons-attack-chain",
        "title": "Bioweapons Attack Chain Model",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/bioweapons-attack-chain/",
        "similarity": 13
      },
      {
        "id": "fraud-sophistication-curve",
        "title": "Fraud Sophistication Curve Model",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/fraud-sophistication-curve/",
        "similarity": 13
      },
      {
        "id": "ai-compute-scaling-metrics",
        "title": "AI Compute Scaling Metrics",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/ai-compute-scaling-metrics/",
        "similarity": 12
      },
      {
        "id": "ai-cyber-damage-estimates",
        "title": "AI Cyber Damage Estimates",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/ai-cyber-damage-estimates/",
        "similarity": 12
      }
    ]
  },
  "coverage": {
    "passing": 1,
    "total": 13,
    "targets": {
      "tables": 8,
      "diagrams": 1,
      "internalLinks": 17,
      "externalLinks": 10,
      "footnotes": 6,
      "references": 6
    },
    "actuals": {
      "tables": 2,
      "diagrams": 0,
      "internalLinks": 14,
      "externalLinks": 6,
      "footnotes": 1,
      "references": 3,
      "quotesWithQuotes": 0,
      "quotesTotal": 0,
      "accuracyChecked": 0,
      "accuracyTotal": 0
    },
    "items": {
      "summary": "red",
      "schedule": "red",
      "entity": "green",
      "editHistory": "red",
      "overview": "red",
      "tables": "amber",
      "diagrams": "red",
      "internalLinks": "amber",
      "externalLinks": "amber",
      "footnotes": "amber",
      "references": "amber",
      "quotes": "red",
      "accuracy": "red"
    }
  },
  "recommendedScore": 21.66
}

No external links