Is Scaling All You Need?

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  "title": "Is Scaling All You Need?",
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  "llmSummary": "Comprehensive survey of the 2024-2025 scaling debate, documenting the shift from pure pretraining to 'scaling-plus' approaches after o3 achieved 87.5% on ARC-AGI-1 but GPT-5 faced 2-year delays. Expert consensus has moved to ~45% favoring hybrid approaches, with data wall projected 2026-2030 and AGI timelines spanning 5-30+ years depending on paradigm.",
  "description": "The scaling debate examines whether current AI approaches will reach AGI through more compute and data, or require new paradigms. By 2025, evidence is mixed: o3 achieved 87.5% on ARC-AGI-1, but GPT-5 took 2 years longer than expected and ARC-AGI-2 remains unsolved by all models. The emerging consensus favors 'scaling-plus'—combining pretraining with reasoning via test-time compute.",
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