AI Surveillance and Regime Durability Model

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  "title": "AI Surveillance and Regime Durability Model",
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  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Using historical regime collapse data (military regimes: 9 years, single-party: 30 years) and evidence from 80+ countries adopting surveillance technology, this model estimates AI-enabled authoritarian regimes may be 2-3x more durable than historical autocracies, with collapse probability within 20 years dropping from 35-50% to 10-20%. The analysis identifies four blocked collapse pathways (popular uprising, elite defection, security force defection, economic suppression) while noting external pressure and fundamental economic failures remain viable, projecting 50% probability of stable autocracy lasting 50-100+ years.",
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