Authoritarian Tools Diffusion Model

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  "title": "Authoritarian Tools Diffusion Model",
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  "llmSummary": "This model analyzes how AI surveillance technologies diffuse to authoritarian regimes through commercial sales, development assistance, joint ventures, reverse engineering, and illicit acquisition. It identifies semiconductor supply chains as the highest-leverage intervention point (medium-high effectiveness, 3-7 year delay achievable) but estimates this advantage will erode in 5-10 years as China develops domestic chip manufacturing, with AI surveillance estimated to enhance authoritarian regime stability by 20-40% and reduce successful protests by similar margins.",
  "description": "This model analyzes how AI surveillance spreads to authoritarian regimes. It finds semiconductor supply chains are the highest-leverage intervention point, but this advantage will erode within 5-10 years as domestic chip manufacturing develops.",
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