LAWS Proliferation Model

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  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Quantitative model projects LAWS will proliferate 4-6x faster than nuclear weapons, reaching 60 nations by 2030 and non-state operational use by 2030-2032, with assassination costs dropping from \\$500K-5M to \\$1K-10K. Assigns 75% probability to scenarios where control mechanisms fail due to dual-use technology barriers, recommending defensive technology investment (\\$5-10B annually) and attribution mechanisms over prevention-focused strategies.",
  "description": "This model tracks lethal autonomous weapons proliferation. It projects 50% of militarily capable nations will have LAWS by 2030, proliferating 4-6x faster than nuclear weapons and reaching non-state actors by 2030-2032.",
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