AI Accident Risk Cruxes

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  "llmSummary": "Comprehensive survey of AI safety researcher disagreements on accident risks, quantifying probability ranges for mesa-optimization (15-55%), deceptive alignment (15-50%), and P(doom) (5-35% median across populations). Integrates 2024-2025 empirical breakthroughs including Anthropic's Sleeper Agents study (backdoors persist through safety training, >99% AUROC detection) and SAD benchmark showing rapid situational awareness advances (Claude Sonnet 4.5: 58% evaluation detection vs 22% for Opus 4.1).",
  "description": "Key uncertainties that determine views on AI accident risks and alignment difficulty, including fundamental questions about mesa-optimization, deceptive alignment, and alignment tractability. Based on extensive surveys of AI safety researchers 2019-2025, revealing probability ranges of 35-55% vs 15-25% for mesa-optimization likelihood and 30-50% vs 15-30% for deceptive alignment. 2024-2025 empirical breakthroughs include Anthropic's Sleeper Agents study showing backdoors persist through safety training, and detection probes achieving greater than 99% AUROC. Industry preparedness rated D on existential safety per 2025 AI Safety Index.",
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