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When Will AGI Arrive?

agi-timeline-debatecruxPath: /knowledge-base/debates/agi-timeline-debate/
E4Entity ID (EID)
← Back to page4 backlinksQuality: 33Updated: 2026-01-28
Page Recorddatabase.json — merged from MDX frontmatter + Entity YAML + computed metrics at build time
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  "summary": "Comprehensive survey of AGI timeline predictions ranging from 2025-2027 (ultra-short) to never with current approaches, with median expert estimates around 2032-2037. Key cruxes include whether scaling alone suffices, data/compute limits, and trust in lab leader claims; wide uncertainty reflects deep disagreement about fundamental capabilities questions.",
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External Links
{
  "lesswrong": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/ai-timelines",
  "eaForum": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-forecasting"
}
Backlinks (4)
idtitletyperelationship
__index__/knowledge-base/debatesKey Debatesconcept—
compounding-risks-analysisCompounding Risks Analysisanalysis—
toby-ordToby Ordperson—
will-macaskillWill MacAskillperson—