When Will AGI Arrive?
agi-timeline-debatecruxPath: /knowledge-base/debates/agi-timeline-debate/
E4Entity ID (EID)
Page Recorddatabase.json — merged from MDX frontmatter + Entity YAML + computed metrics at build time
{
"id": "agi-timeline-debate",
"numericId": null,
"path": "/knowledge-base/debates/agi-timeline-debate/",
"filePath": "knowledge-base/debates/agi-timeline-debate.mdx",
"title": "When Will AGI Arrive?",
"quality": 33,
"readerImportance": 91.5,
"researchImportance": 77,
"tacticalValue": 78,
"contentFormat": "article",
"tractability": null,
"neglectedness": null,
"uncertainty": null,
"causalLevel": null,
"lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
"dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
"llmSummary": "Comprehensive survey of AGI timeline predictions ranging from 2025-2027 (ultra-short) to never with current approaches, with median expert estimates around 2032-2037. Key cruxes include whether scaling alone suffices, data/compute limits, and trust in lab leader claims; wide uncertainty reflects deep disagreement about fundamental capabilities questions.",
"description": "The debate over AGI timelines from imminent to decades away to never with current approaches",
"ratings": {
"novelty": 2.5,
"rigor": 3.5,
"actionability": 4,
"completeness": 5.5
},
"category": "debates",
"subcategory": "policy-debates",
"clusters": [
"ai-safety",
"epistemics"
],
"metrics": {
"wordCount": 1010,
"tableCount": 1,
"diagramCount": 0,
"internalLinks": 2,
"externalLinks": 2,
"footnoteCount": 0,
"bulletRatio": 0.33,
"sectionCount": 14,
"hasOverview": false,
"structuralScore": 6
},
"suggestedQuality": 40,
"updateFrequency": 45,
"evergreen": true,
"wordCount": 1010,
"unconvertedLinks": [],
"unconvertedLinkCount": 0,
"convertedLinkCount": 0,
"backlinkCount": 4,
"hallucinationRisk": {
"level": "medium",
"score": 60,
"factors": [
"no-citations",
"low-rigor-score",
"low-quality-score",
"conceptual-content"
]
},
"entityType": "crux",
"redundancy": {
"maxSimilarity": 14,
"similarPages": [
{
"id": "long-timelines",
"title": "Long-Timelines Technical Worldview",
"path": "/knowledge-base/worldviews/long-timelines/",
"similarity": 14
},
{
"id": "scaling-debate",
"title": "Is Scaling All You Need?",
"path": "/knowledge-base/debates/scaling-debate/",
"similarity": 13
},
{
"id": "agi-development",
"title": "AGI Development",
"path": "/knowledge-base/forecasting/agi-development/",
"similarity": 13
},
{
"id": "agi-timeline",
"title": "AGI Timeline",
"path": "/knowledge-base/forecasting/agi-timeline/",
"similarity": 13
},
{
"id": "doomer",
"title": "AI Doomer Worldview",
"path": "/knowledge-base/worldviews/doomer/",
"similarity": 13
}
]
},
"changeHistory": [
{
"date": "2026-02-24",
"branch": "feat/stale-fact-detection-581-582",
"title": "Batch content fixes + stale-facts validator + 2 new validation rules",
"summary": "(fill in)",
"pr": 924,
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-6"
},
{
"date": "2026-02-18",
"branch": "claude/fix-issue-240-N5irU",
"title": "Surface tacticalValue in /wiki table and score 53 pages",
"summary": "Added `tacticalValue` to `ExploreItem` interface, `getExploreItems()` mappings, the `/wiki` explore table (new sortable \"Tact.\" column), and the card view sort dropdown. Scored 49 new pages with tactical values (4 were already scored), bringing total to 53.",
"model": "sonnet-4",
"duration": "~30min"
}
],
"coverage": {
"passing": 4,
"total": 13,
"targets": {
"tables": 4,
"diagrams": 0,
"internalLinks": 8,
"externalLinks": 5,
"footnotes": 3,
"references": 3
},
"actuals": {
"tables": 1,
"diagrams": 0,
"internalLinks": 2,
"externalLinks": 2,
"footnotes": 0,
"references": 0,
"quotesWithQuotes": 0,
"quotesTotal": 0,
"accuracyChecked": 0,
"accuracyTotal": 0
},
"items": {
"llmSummary": "green",
"schedule": "green",
"entity": "green",
"editHistory": "green",
"overview": "red",
"tables": "amber",
"diagrams": "red",
"internalLinks": "amber",
"externalLinks": "amber",
"footnotes": "red",
"references": "red",
"quotes": "red",
"accuracy": "red"
},
"editHistoryCount": 2,
"ratingsString": "N:2.5 R:3.5 A:4 C:5.5"
},
"readerRank": 14,
"researchRank": 108,
"recommendedScore": 133.08
}External Links
{
"lesswrong": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/ai-timelines",
"eaForum": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-forecasting"
}Backlinks (4)
| id | title | type | relationship |
|---|---|---|---|
| __index__/knowledge-base/debates | Key Debates | concept | — |
| compounding-risks-analysis | Compounding Risks Analysis | analysis | — |
| toby-ord | Toby Ord | person | — |
| will-macaskill | Will MacAskill | person | — |