Technical Pathway Decomposition

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  "llmSummary": "Decomposes AI risk into three pathways (accident 45%, misuse 30%, structural 25% of total 25% x-risk) by mapping 60+ technical variables through causal chains. Finds safety techniques degrading relative to capabilities at frontier scale, with interpretability coverage declining from 25% to 15% and RLHF effectiveness from 55% to 40% at GPT-5 level.",
  "description": "This model maps technical pathways from capability advances to catastrophic risk outcomes. It finds that accident risks (deceptive alignment, goal misgeneralization, instrumental convergence) account for 45% of total technical risk, with safety techniques currently degrading relative to capabilities at frontier scale.",
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