Multi-Actor Strategic Landscape

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  "title": "Multi-Actor Strategic Landscape",
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  "lastUpdated": "2026-03-13",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "llmSummary": "Analyzes how AI x-risk depends on which actors develop TAI, finding US-China capability gap narrowed from 9.26% to 1.70% (2024-2025) while open-source closed to within 1.70% of frontier. Estimates actor identity determines 40-60% of total risk variance across four pathways (singleton 8%, conflict 6%, lock-in 5%, misuse 7%), with 25% combined x-risk.",
  "description": "This model analyzes how risk depends on which actors develop TAI. Using 2024-2025 capability data, it finds the US-China model performance gap narrowed from 9.26% to 1.70% (Recorded Future), while open-source closed to within 1.70% of frontier. Actor identity may determine 40-60% of total risk variance.",
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